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Research note · Earnings markets
Why Can Prediction Markets Be Informative?
Prediction-market prices aggregate the beliefs of financially incentivized participants and update as new information arrives.
- Dispersed
Information - Traders
- Trades
- Market
Price - Collective
Probability
Not a simple vote. Traders contribute different information, confidence, and capital.
Evidence from earnings markets
Polymarket probabilities were better calibrated than the analyst benchmark and contained additional predictive information.
Much of the measured advantage over analysts comes from analyst probability miscalibration relative to the base rate.
Financial Incentives
Participants have a reason to act on what they know.
Continuous Updating
Prices move when new evidence reaches the market.
Wisdom of Crowds
Independent judgments can offset individual errors.
Distributed Information
Different traders bring different pieces of the picture.
A small specialist core and a broad, diverse participant base can combine different pieces of information in one price.